Appendix: Century End Reflections on 1984


Appendix: 1992 "formula": 75% Perot>Bush; 5% Perot>Clinton; 25% Perot>"other/non/?

An example of how to use this: CO: here, Bush's lead over Clinton alone is about166,875 votes;

however, since 25% of Perot if "up for grabs", and this number is about 91,502 votes in CO

in 1992, this suggests that Bush's actual lead over Clinton alone is about 70,300 votes.

However, one must also subtract from Bush's lead the 5% of Perot

that Clinton would have gotten. That's about 1/5 of the 91,502 Perot 25% figure above.

That's just under 22,000 votes. Thus, Bush's actual lead--if he has one--in CO over Clinton,

would be about 70,300 minus 22,000 minus "other", 10,277= about 30,000+ votes.

And this is assuming that the increase in turnout would have

occurred had Perot not been in the race--and that a full 75% of Perot's vote,

therefore, would have gone to Bush.

This is, however, relatively unlikely, given that the previous race

in which Bush had been a candidate--1988--had produced

the second-lowest voter turnout in US history.



States Clinton carried: Electoral College votes: Arkansas 6 DC 3 Hawaii 4 Illinois 22 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 Minnesota 10 New York 33 Rhode Island 4 West Virginia 5


109
VT: Bush 137,610 3 Clinton 136,889 721 (1%= 2745) (25% Perot= 16,496) TN: Bush 991,276 11 Clinton 943,519 47,756 (1%=19,347) (25% Perot= 49,992) Other 1847 CA: Bush 5,352,578 54 Clinton 5,236,125 116,453 (1%=110,479)(25%= Perot=574,000) Other 79,497 PA: Bush 2,468,841 23 Clinton 2,284,297 184,543 (1%= 47,531)(25% Perot=225,666) Other 26,138 MO: Bush 1,200,214 11 Clinton 1,079,810 120,404 (1%= 22,800)(25% Perot=129,685) Other: 7497 WA: Bush 1,137,569 11 Clinton 1,020,126 117,443 (1%= 21,576)(25% Perot= 135,445)Other: 20,144 NM Bush 281,745 5 Clinton 266,211 15,534 (1%=5663)(25% Perot=22,973) Other: 1615 DE: Bush 146,723 3 Clinton 129,014 17,708 (1%=2875)(25% Perot= 14,803) Other: 1105 MI: Bush 2,173,549 18 Clinton 1,912,422 261,127 (1%=40,859)(25% Perot= 206,203) Other: 21,392 IA Bush 694,992 7 Clinton 615,670 79,322 (1%= 13,106)(25% Perot= 63,367)Other: 5332 KY: Bush 770,136 8 Clinton 675,301 94,834 (1%= 14,454)(25% Perot= 52,869) Other: 50,986 LA: Bush 891,994 9 Clinton 826,544 65,450 (1%= 17,185)(25% Perot= 52,869) Other: 27,485
272
CO: Bush 814,857 8 Clinton 647,981 166,875 (1%= 14,628) (25% Perot=91,502) Other: 10,277 NJ: Bush 1,748,236 15 Clinton 1,462,297 285,939(1%=32,105)(25% Perot= 130,457)Other: 22,327 SD: Bush 191,689 3 Clinton 129,552 63,136 (1%=3202)(25% Perot=18,323) WI: Bush 1,330,214 11 Clinton 1,068,289 270,924 (1%= 24,075)(25% Perot=136,119)Other: 9913 OK: Bush 832,837 8 Clinton 489,059 343,778 (1%=13,218) (25% Perot= 79,969) VA: Bush 1,411,996 13 Clinton 1,056,081 355,914 (1%=24,680)(25% Perot=87,159)Other: 20,859 NV: Bush 275,263 4 Clinton 195,777 79,488 (1%=4710)(25% Perot= 33,145)Other: 4727 CT: Bush 839,891 8 Clinton 699,756 140,135 (1%=15,396)(25% Perot=87,192)Other: 6754 MS: Bush 552,012 7 Clinton 404,539 147,473 (1%=9565)(25% Perot=21,406)Other: 7571 MT: Bush 224,625 3 Clinton 159,868 64,757 (1%= 3844)(25% Perot= 26,806) Other: 3658

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